The Maximum Leader scoffs at the 13% of Vermonters who wish to secede.
I think they could do it (provided they can grow the 13% to 51% and win control of the state legislature).
First of all, there wouldn’t be a war. Nasty lawsuits maybe, but no one is going to volunteer to bayonet the Vermontians (Vermonters? Vermontites? Vermin?). The Civil War was fueled by a moral, religious, passionate issue. Folks like my ancestors were willing to march through Georgia to end slavery.
Other than the Maximum Leader, who among our readers is going to kill to keep Vermont part of the Northeast Dairy Pact?
Secondly, Vermont can assure that the rest of the states let them go peacefully. They can simply ramp up the gay marriage and then threaten to sue any state that denies the validity of Vermont marriage under the “Full Faith and Credit” portion of the Constitution. Rather than waiting for an aggrieved couple with standing to work the non-recognition of their marriage through the appeals process, Vermont could sue another state - say, Virginia - for impeding contracts made in Vermont. A state vs. state suit would go directly to the Supreme Court. And win.
So Vermont can simply argue: Let us go our way OR we force gay marriage down everyone’s throats. The Republican party would shower them with nice parting gifts.