Which Side Of The Laffer Curve.

Greetings, loyal minions. Your Maximum Leader spoke rather briefly with the Smallholder over the weekend. While many parts of that converstation will not interest you, one part would. Here is a fabricated version of the conversation we had (but it is true to the spirit of that conversation):

Smallholder (SH): So, did you read Skippy’s post about Allan Greenspan?

Maximum Leader (ML): Yeah.

SH: So are you ready to admit we’re on the right side of the Laffer curve now?

ML: What?

SH: The Bush people are admitting that tax cuts will not stimulate the economy enough to make up for the revenue lost by the tax cuts. So we’re on the right side of the Laffer curve.

ML: You mean the left side of the Laffer curve.

SH: Whatever. You know what I’m talking about. Are you going to admit you’re wrong? Or are you pathalogically incapable of admitting when your wrong biyatch?

ML: You know, I thought that quotation Skippy posted was in the context of escalating costs for Social Security.

SH: That isn’t how I read it. You’re just trying to wiggle out of admitting it aren’t you?

ML: I wouldn’t say that. I thought I read something addressing that point on National Review Online or the Wall Street Journal or something. I think there was more to that quote than you think.

SH: I think the quote was pretty darned clear. You’re just being difficult because you can’t admit it when you’re wrong.

ML: I’m not sure I’m wrong on this. If I am wrong I’ll admit it. But I think there is more to this than you think.

SH: Come on! You know you’re wrong and that we’re on the wrong side of the Laffer curve. You just can’t bring yourself to admit it.

ML: I’ll read up on it and get back to you.

SH: You just need time to figure out how to weasel out of admitting that you’re wrong. I will not expect a retraction any time soon. (Muttering: Biyatch.)

So. Your Maximum Leader spent most of his limited free time this past weekend reading the 397 page Economic Report of the President. If you go to page 55 and start reading the section entitled “The Effect of Tax Relief on Interest Rates,” you’ll find the quotation in context. The full jist of the context is this. The tax cuts, given the size of federal spending and the debt to GDP ratio, are not likely to stimulate the US economy enough to cause federal revenue to increase revenues to their pre-cut levels. BUT (and it is a big but), raising taxes in an effort to lower interest rates (and thereby lower the debt to GDP ration) is also unlikely to work.

You might also want to go on and read the whole chapters entitled “Macroeconomic Performance in 2002″ and “Tax Policy For A Growing Economy.” After reading those point you may come away, as did your Maximum Leader, believing that the culprit behind federal revenue issues is not tax cutting, but federal spending and debt maintenance. We need to cut spending and reduce the debt to get our financial ship in order.

Excursus: Your Maximum Leader was surprised to learn (via a straw poll of a few of Mrs. Villain’s friends over the weekend), that many people are under the mistaken belief that the national debt was paid off when the federal budget was balanced and showing a surplus in the late 90s. During that period, depending on how you wanted to look at it, the federal government was not increasing the size of the national debt. (At least not increasing it due to overspending. They weren’t paying it off either so in that respect they were incresing the overall debt.)

So, where does that leave your Maximum Leader and the discussion of the Laffer Curve?

First off, it is good to know that the Smallholder actually agrees with Dr. Laffer’s curve. Many (if not most) “liberal” economists do not. So that is a start.

Next off… According to the Administration’s economists, we appear to be near the apex of the tax/revenue curve described by Dr. Laffer. We are at that stage were tax increases and tax cuts will start to negatively affect revenue. What the Administration seems to be pushing for now is: 1) keep tax levels the way they are now (ie: make permanent the President’s tax cuts); 2) revise the tax code (without increasing or decreasing the overall tax levels); 3) balance the budget; and 4) pay down the national debt.

Now, your Maximum Leader has read the work of other practitioners of the Dismal Science and their thoughts on tax rates in the US. There are some who, like the Smallholder, believe in Supply Side Economics AND believe that the US could afford to raise tax rates without fear of negative affects on the economy. There are some who are Supply-Siders and think that tax rates should be cut further. There are many more economists who are not Supply-Siders and believe a great number of things.

As for your Maximum Leader, his natural inclination is to cut taxes a bit further. But he will concede that according to the Administration, further tax cuts would not have a proportionate stimulative affect on the economy. This isn’t quite the same as saying we’re on the left side of the Laffer Curve. I don’t believe that any Administration economic advisor would agree on the record with the Smallholder that we are on the left side of the Laffer Curve. But one could easily draw that conclusion from reading the President’s report.

So, is that a concession? Maybe. In so much as your Maximum Leader would agree with the Smallholder that (after partisanship is stripped away) the Administration may admitting that their tax cuts went a little to far - yes. Your Maximum Leader will concede that a careful reading of Administration documents are saying what the Smallholder is claiming. Does your Maximum Leader happen to agree with that assessment concerning tax rates? Not exactly. He is willing to concede that further tax cuts, without deep cuts in federal spending and debt reduction, will not have the stimulative affect that one would expect. But, if federal spending could be curtailed and a sensible plan for debt reduction be enacted, further tax cuts would have the stimulative effect that a Supply-Sider would hope for.

Of course, are we close to deep cuts in federal spending? No. And are we on the path towards debt reduction? No. The likely follow-up to these points is, “And who is responsible for that?” Congress would be the answer. The Republican Congress needs to spend more time looking after its fiscal responsibility to all citizens of our republic and make some hard choices about how our tax money (and future tax reciepts) are spent. So far they have not proven capable of doing that. If Democrats could find some serious deficit hawks out there, your Maximum Leader would be willing to give them a try. But unfortunately the Democrats seem no more capable of spending cuts than are Republicans. It is sad really.

We need more fiscally responsible politicans in Washington. What ever happened to that balanced budget amendment that Ronald Reagan supported? Of course, even if we had a balanced budget amendment in place; we’d disregard it at this time because of the war on terror. And temporarially, your Maximum Leader could support that. But it is not how we should run our budgets year-in and year-out.

Carry on.

Guiliana Sgerna Updates

Greetings, loyal minions. Your Maximum Leader has followed with interest the story of the release, then shooting, of Guiliana Sgerna. Your Maximum Leader does mourn the death of Nicola Calipari. It appears, at this point, to be a tragic accident.

This is what your Maximum Leader thinks happened, for what that is worth. In a nutshell, the car carrying Sgerna and Calipari approached a checkpoint manned by the US 3rd Infantry Division. They approached the checkpoint at night and at high speed. The US soldiers fired signaled and fired warning shots at the vehicle. He believes that these warning shots may have scared the driver into thinking they were under attack and provoked him to drive faster. Which in turn caused US troops to open fire to stop the car.

Of course, your Maximum Leader is willing to revise any of these assumptions as facts become clear. The good Dr. Rusty is also revising some of his previous statements. It takes a big man to admit when he is wrong. Rusty must be a big man. The good Dr. also has some information about how Sgerna’s story is changing.

Your Maximm Leader will continue to follow the story and comment as he can.

Carry on.

Housekeeping Part 1495

Greetings, loyal minions. Your Maximum Leader felt he needed to take a moment to take care of a few disjointed items that are lingering out there in his mind. So here goes…

First, consider yourselves warned. Your Maximum Leadr will not be posting from Sunday, March 13 (though he rarely blogs on Sunday anyway) to Saturday, March 19. You read that correctly. No bloging from your Maximum Leader for a whole week. Why you may ask yourself? Two words for you. Vegas. Baby.

Yes, your Maximum Leader will be in Las Vegas, Nevada for the week. He will be travelling with Mrs. Villain, but not the villainous offspring. Since he is travelling with Mrs. Villain the possible depths of depravity and debauchery to which your Maximum Leader would like to decend are, alas, limited. And, in keeping with his (and the Las Vegas Tourism Bureau’s) rule, “What happens in Vegas stays in Vegas.” do not anticipate an accounting of the goings-on. Except maybe an account of gourmet meals eaten. (And he has a number of them scheduled.)

If you would like to guest blog in this space between March 13 and March 19, shoot your Maximum Leader an e-mail at: maxldr-blog -at- yahoo -dot- com. Or use the link on the left side of this page.

Of course… It would be nice to have your Maximum Leader’s various ministers do some posting while your Maximum Leader is away… But other than the Smallholder the other ministers are AWOL. Perhaps your Maximum Leader needs to re-evaluate crony status…

Second. Do not - repeat do not - make yourself an ice cream sundae in the dark. You might wind up pouring wasabi peas on your French Vanilla and hot fudge instead of peanuts.

Third. Many thanks to the lovely Annika for inviting your Maximum Leader to join her fantasy baseball league. While he didn’t respond to here initial e-mail fast enough to make her listing, but he has signed up now. He will let you know of his progress throughout the year.

Fourth, the Llama Military Correspondent asks us to name some more flash in the pan babes of the 80s. Your Maximum Leader first thought of Rebecca DeMornay. Really, after “Risky Business” she really only had one more big file “The Hand that Rocks the Cradle.” And nothing since. How about Kate Capshaw? She did one Indiana Jones movie, marries Spielberg, and is never heard from again. (Perhaps thankfully.) Or Elizabeth McGovern? Or Karen Allen?

And lastly, if you adjust for February being a short month, the site traffic here at Nakedvillainy.com continues to grow. We are averaging 225-240 unique visitors a day. Thanks very much to all of you who come back day after day. Your Maximum Leader really appreciates it.

Carry on.

Italian Hostage Released

Greetings, loyal minions. Your Maximum Leader was pleased to hear from Dr. Rusty that Italian hostage Guiliana Sgrena has been released.

Your Maximum Leader doesn’t have any doubt that Ms. Sgrena’s politics helped win her release. Although he wouldn’t go so far as to say that she staged her own abduction. Some of the other theories concerning her abduction seem plausible, but without having more facts your Maximum Leader will not pass judgement.

We can only hope that other hostages meet with a similar happy fate.

Carry on.

And I Laughed…

Greetings, loyal minions. Your Maximum Leader has read the blog “Misspent Life” for a while now. Today he noticed that for some mad reason Misspent was not on the blogroll… That mistake is now corrected.

Anyho… Your Maximum Leader was reading this post of the Misspent One today and laughed aloud at Number 3. Mrs. Villain asked what your Maximum Leader was laughing at. He showed her the post. She read it. He said, “Isn’t number three really funny?” Mrs. Villain said she didn’t get it. Your Maximum Leader tried to explain Vercingetorix. He then realized that it was hopeless. Inwardly, your Maximum Leader realizes that he wishes the Smallholder was there.

He would have gotten it.

Carry on.

All The Cool Kids Are Doing It.

Greetings, loyal minions. Your Maximum Leader jumps on the grammar testing bandwagon with Robert The Disney Loving LLama Butcher and Brian of Memento Moron.

Your Maximum Leader scores on this test were:
100% Beginner, 100% Intermediate, 93% Advanced, and 72% Expert.

He believes if he had spent more than 2 mins on the test he might have done even better. Of course, his score does not mean that (sadly) he still doesn’t play fast and loose with his language while blogging on the fly.

Carry on.

Death, Killing. Dying.

Gretings, loyal minions. Your Maximum Leader enjoyed this recent post by the Big Hominid: your dose of Buddhism.

Alas, all your Maximum Leader has to add to the discussion of the categorical nature of “killing being wrong” is the following nugget from a good ole boy friend of your Maximum Leader’s. Upon hearing the news that a murderer of an elderly woman the next county over was being exectued he said, “Good. Some people are in need of killin’.”

Your Maximum Leader agrees. Some people are in need of killin.

Carry on.

Abelard And Heloise: Still Crossing Stars

Greetings, loyal minions. Your Maximum Leader, being the liberally educated fellow that he is, is quite familiar with the story of Abelard and Heloise. They wre the famed star-crossed lovers of medieval France. (Who’s story is, at least in part, the inspration for Romeo & Juliet, as well as interpretations of Tristan and Isolde; as well as countless ballads and poems.)

It seems as though Abelard and Heloise are still crossing stars today. This peice off the news wires discusses a debate “raging” among academics as to the authenticity of letters that may have been written by Abelard and Heloise.

Excursus: “Raging” and “Academics” Heh. Your Maximum Leader hasn’t ever known a medievalist who was prone to rage…

This is the first your Maximum Leader has heard of these letters. So he will now do some more reading and see what he can learn. It may be interesting.

Carry on.

Food Geek Alert!

Greetings, loyal minions. Your Maximum Leader is a geek. A geek in so many different ways it is hard to ennumerate them all here. But for the purposes of this post, he is a big food geek. He loves to cook. He loves to eat. (Remember one of our rotating tag lines here at Nakedvillainy.com is “Well Educated. Well Informed. Well Fed. Well hung.” Hey! Get that on a shrt! You’d be pimpin’ wearin’ it in your hood.)

(NB to Brian: Your Maximum Leader still owes you a soup review. He may give it a shot this weekend.)

When your Maximum Leader chooses to go out to dinner, he generally goes whole hog and finds a really haute cuisine place to which to go. This means he doesn’t go out often, but when he does it is memorable. (And alas, quite expensive normally…)

Anyho… Longtime readers may remember that your Maximum Leader is a great fan of the original “Iron Chef” TV show from Japan. He still finds himself watching it at 11pm on Food Network from time to time. He is beginning to warm to the new “Iron Chef America” show on Food Network.

Well… This Sunday at 9pm the two Chef’s duking it out on Iron Chef America are Masaharu Morimoto and Roberto Donna

This news has gotten your Maximum Leader positively giddy with anticipation. You see, your Maximum Leader has had meals prepared by both Chef Morimoto and Chef Donna. The meal he had at Morimoto’s in Philadelphia is still clear in his mind. He can still taste the Toro Tuna Tatare and the Kobe Beef with foie gras. (Your Maximum Leader has had to wipe the saliva off his keyboard.) That meal is still among the greatest he’s ever eaten.

But your Maximum Leader has also eaten a number of times at Roberto Donna’s Galileo restaurant. Including one trip to his Laboratorio del Galileo. And that meal, like the one at Morimoto’s, is memorable. At the meal in the Laboratorio, Chef Donna came in and chatted with your Maximum Leader (and his party) while we snacked on hors d’oerves and asked us about what we were in the mood for. He told us what he was working with that night. Then prepared at meal that was exactly what we were asking for.

So… From 9-10pm on Sunday your Maximum Leader will be glued to the TV watching the showdown between these two great chefs. Your Maximum Leader knows his personal preference is for Morimoto. Morimoto is more ingenious and a bit more global in his dishes. He fuses so many different styles and cuisines together that you never know what you’ll get with Morimoto. He pushes the envelope more. Now that sometimes results in some bad stuff. But you never find the great stuff if you don’t sometimes suffer through the bad.

Carry on.

Congratulations Steve Fossett

Greetings, loyal minions. Your Maximum Leader is periodically wowed by some of the accomplishments of man. Take for example today’s news that Steve Fossett has completed a solo flight around the world without refueling.

Have you ever stopped to think about just how remarkable a feat that is? Most of the time you can’t drive your car to the next state without filling up. But in an experimental aircraft one man can fly around the world without stopping. The technology boggles the mind.

The other amazing substory to this story is that the flight is Fossett’s endurance. While your Maximum Leader would imagine that Fossett took some catnaps during his 67 hour flight, it is still an incredible accomplishment for a 60 year old man. Your Maximum Leader has read accounts of Charles Lindberg’s flight across the Atlantic and how hard it was for him to stay awake and focused on the job of flying his aircraft. One can only imagine the problems Fossett would have.

Congratulations Steve Fossett. Your Maximum Leader doffs his bejeweled floppy hat in your direction.

Carry on.

Mark Warner (D-VA) in 2008?

Greetings, loyal minions. Your Maximum Leader wanted to point out an interesting item off the news wire. According to the Christian Science Monitor, many governors are lining up early for a 2008 run for the Oval Office. The first governor listed is your Maximum Leader’s own governor, Mark Warner.

Your Maximum Leader didn’t vote for Mr. Warner when he ran. It is one of the few votes he’s cast for which his has a little regret. He would gladly vote for Mark Warner should he choose to run against the senior Senator from Virginia, the Honorable John Warner. He would not support Mark Warner in a senate run against George Allen.

Some of you may be asking yourself, “Self, why would my Maximum Leader support Mark Warner against one incumbent Republican Senator, but not another?” Fair question. John Warner is a good man (your Maximum Leader has met him on a few occasions); but ideologically your Maximum Leader and John Warner are not soulmates. John Warner is hawkish (which is good); but squishy on judicial nominations (which is bad). Basically, John Warner is a good ole “Rockefeller Republican.” Whereas George Allen is a good coservative. Sure Allen goes a little further than your Maximum Leader would on social issues, but in the main Allen and your Maximum Leader agree on more than we would disagree over.

Now, would your Maximum Leader still vote for Mark Warner over John Warner (whose term isn’t up by the way until 2010 - so this discussion is largely hypothetical) if party control of the Senate was in play? No. Probably not, because it would diminish the power of those on whom your Maximum Leader’s favour falls more freely.

Many have said that Mark Warner may choose to run for Senate against George Allen in 2006. Your Maximum Leader sees why this might be a good move for Warner. His term as Governor ends (effectively) this year. And he would be better positioned nationally if he was in the Senate.

But running for the Senate is fraught will peril for Mark Warner as well. George Allen is a formidable politican and campaigner. Allen is very popular among Virginians, and popular among Republicans nationally. (Among big-time Republican donors he is very well known from his recent successes as Chairman of the Republican Senatorial Committee.) A show-down with Allen is not a cake-walk for Mark Warner. A victory is not assured. Thus, if he were to win a razor thin majority, he may not be viewed as being strong enough to compete in “red states.” Also, if he is viewed as being too ambitious that wouldn’t work to his advantage. Plus, once you get into the Senate you have to start voting on things. And once you vote on things, you have a record that is hard to run on. (As your Maximum Leader has said before, Senators have too much baggage incumbent on them to run effective campaigns for President.)

Regardless of how it plays out, Mark Warner has been a good Governor of this great Commonwealth. Keep your eye on him. That young guy is going places.

Carry on.

Computer Game Ramblings

Greetings, loyal minions. Your Maximum Leader let you down. Rather than titilating you all (his loyal minions) with a fun and exciting update yesterday; he opted to spend time with his family - and then waste the better part of the night playing Medieval Total War.

This particular game of Medieval Total War started out poorly for your Maximum Leader. He was playing the Byzantines in this game. (He generally plays either the English, Byzantines, or Holy Roman Empire. He’s dabbled in the Italians and the Spanish; but generally sticks with those first three.)

Early on the Byzantines are hampered by really only “producing” military units in Constantanople. Your Maximum Leader caught an early break by expanding rapidly into the Balkans and around the Black Sea. The early nemisis of the Byzantines, the Turks, we warring with the Egyptians over Antioch and Syria. This allowed your Maximum Leader to build up Anatolia as a military production center. But, eventually the Turks and Egyptians settled their differences, and the Turks decided to attack. Your Maximum Leader caught more lucky breaks and held his own. (Mainly by executing prisoners and not ransoming them back.) An uneasy peace began. Then, after a few years, the Turks attacked again. Then, in a masterful display of defence on unfavourable terrain, your Maximum Leader’s Byzantines captured the Turkish Sultan and killed a number of his heirs in one battle. The Sultan was ransomed for a huge sum of money. And your Maximum Leader’s spys informed him that the Turkish Sultan had only one heir. Your Maximum Leader went on offence and in one glorious battle that ebbed and flowed, the Byzantines were triumphant and killed th Sultan and his heir in battle. Of course, this victory was followed-on by grabbing formerly Turkish provences.

Then your Maximum Leader was attacked by the Scilians in Naples. He lost Naples. Then the Egyptians decided to pile on and attacked into Syria. The Byzantines forced the Egyptians back and took Antioch and Tripoli from them. Then there were many years of peace. Your Maximum Leader’s Byzantines bided their time and built up his military infrastructure. Then the Scilians got greedy and attacked into Greece from Naples. The Byzantines replused the attack and ransomed back to the Sicilian king 3 princes of the blood and two dukes. With that handsome sum, he was able to build up cavalry and then with his Emperor (Michael VIII) at the head of the army, he attacked and retook Naples.

Then his leader, Emperor Michael VIII died (young - 60) and his 16 year old heir became Emperor. Constantine XI ascended. This was the big turning point for the Byzantines. He was attacked (in Bulgaria) by German and French Crusader armies bent on taking Constantanople. He crushed them both.

Then the Sicilians attacked Naples again. Using the young Emperor (aged 20 now) at the head of his armies, he counter-attacked the Sicilians and eventually eliminated them as he had the Turks.

Then the Egyptians declared a jihad against him and tried to retake Tripoli and Antioch. The Egyptians took Tripoli by stalled there. Your Maximum Leader moved his Emperor and armies by sea and invaded Egypt itself. After a few years, the Egyptians were eliminated.

Now the Byzantines control most of the Balkans (except Wallachia and Croatia), all the provences around the Black sea. All of Asia Minor. All of the Middle East. Egypt. The islands of Sicily, Malta, Rhodes, Cyprus, and Crete. And Naples on the boot of Italy. His young Emperor married an Italian princess and his producing heirs at the rate of one every two years (as well as daughters in the off years that he will use to cement alliances). All the major factions have sued for alliances with him (the only unallied factions are the Pope; the Holy Roman Empire - which is being gobbled up by neighbours; and the French). He is awash in cash, and is able to both improve his economy and trade while supporting massive professional armies consisting of many elite units.

And that dear minions is what your Maximum Leader did instead of blogging.

It did help clear his mind a little.

And the game isn’t even done yet!

Carry on.

Where is Smallholder?

Greetings, loyal minions. Your Maximum Leader hopes to blog some tonight. But in the meanwhile one should ask: Where is the Smallholder? The blogosphere wonders.

Carry on.

Deaths

Greetings, loyal minions. Your Maximum Leader hasn’t been too prolix over the past few days. He’s still fighting off winter cold (which is a persistent low-grade feeling of ickyness); and has had other things come up.

Among the other things is snow. Snow around the Villainschloss has closed the schools and that means that Mrs. Villain and the Villainettes have been around more; and you Maximum Leader has been spending time with them.

Also a friend of your Maximum Leader’s died last Wednesday night. He found out on Thursday. He attened various wake/funeral events on Friday and Saturday. As if loosing a friend to cancer wasn’t enough; your Maximum Leader was telephoned yesterday by his revered mother yesterday. She informed him that one of his great uncles had died (old age) on Thursday as well.

Your Maximum Leader’s friend lived outside Richmond, VA, which is close; but still something of a drive. His great uncle lived in California, but his remains are being flown here to be buried at the national cemetary at Quantico, VA. Which is interesting. Uncle Bob’s wife (Martha) was buried at their church near their home in Pasadena, CA. But Uncle Bob is being buried among his brother Marines in Quantico. Your Maximum Leader finds that somewhat odd. Not that one would want to be buried among your fellow soliders, but that you would want to be buried so far from your spouse.

Carry on.

Egocasting

Greetings, loyal minions. Your Maximum Leader, occasionally, reads something that really makes his mind churn. After seeing a blog entry on Galley Slaves he went and read all of Christine Rosen’s article entitled: The Age of Egocasting by Christine Rosen (from the New Atlantis).

Read it. See if it provokes the same response.

Carry on.

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