The problem with the NHL is threefold

1. Poor product
2. Poor marketing
3. Ridiculously over priced.

1. Compare games played today to games from 10 years ago prior to the recent expansion boom, and you’ll see what I mean. Watch NHL on ESPN Classic… playoff games from the late 80s/early 90s and you’ll see a fast paced, skilled game that is as compelling and exciting as anything Football or Basketball have to offer.

Now, scores are much lower, the premium is on checking forwards, and skaters are not allowed to skate. GM’s want bigger guys who can hold and hook the faster guys. The reason is that officiating has tanked. Penalties aren’t called consistantly, and there’s no accountability for bad officiating.

In the mid 80s, if a forward beat a defenseman on the rush up the ice, the defenseman would try to hurry back, but the forward would have earned a breakaway, and a scoring chance would result. Now the defensman will trip or hold the forward and more often than not, a penalty is not called. this equalizes the game, putting a premium on guys who can fight along the boards. Now most of the action is in the corners, along the boards. Is this exciting? Not really.

2. goes without saying. Hockey has expanded into markets where it has no natural hold. The league has done little, if anything to promote hockey away from games. Promotions at games are great, but that’s preaching to the choir.

3. For a shitty product, the prices are absurd. This is largley the fault of about half a dozen GM’s i.e. the rich ones. They pay Baseball prices for hockey stars without the revenue to cover it.

The real problem lies in the lack of revenue. The NFL has the lucrative national TV deals. Baseball has huge TV contracts. So does Basketball. Using the NFL as an example, each team gets enough revenue from the TV contract to cover the salary cap. So there is no real benefit comparing a large market (i.e. New York) with a small market (i.e. Green Bay). Hockey is a gate driven sport, so high ticket prices, local TV revenue, and merchandise are the main source of operating revenue. The NHL is basically a minor leage compared to the big boys. It’s one of those situations where

Costs >> Revenue

So it can’t continue. Simply put, either Cost has to come down (i.e. salaries), or Revenue has to go up. Since the product sucks, and national popularity is dwindling (following a brief surge in the mid 90s), Revenue stands little chance of going up. Since the players have a semi-strong union, Salaries have little chance of going down.

it’s nice to say “Hey, reduce salaries accross the board” but realistically that is absurd.

The NHL, simply put, is screwed as is. So there’ll be a labor stoppage. The NHL is already losing popularity rapidly. Being gate and merchandise driven, revenues are dropping. Salaries are going up. So what’s the solution?

1. Improve the product.
2. Reduce cost
3. Market

1. will only happen with a contraction of the league. Simply put, there are too many sub-par players in the league because there are too many teams. 10 teams have been added in the last 15 years. That’s absurd. Most teams in the 80s had two quality lines, now a team is lucky to have one. Also, an improvement in officiating MUST take place. Officiating is a joke now, even worse than MLB.

2. Salaries have to drop, and costs have to come down.

3. The current NHL administration, going on 10 years, has been absolutely incompetand in this regard. No reason to believe this’ll change.

So to say it again, the NHL is screwed. Anyone who watched the Salt Lake or Nagano Olympics saw some of the most amazing hockey the world has ever seen. That’s the level of talent out there today. And despite the fact that the NHL has those same players, the game on NHL ice isn’t the same.

Want to see good hockey in 2004? Go see the Disney movie about the Miracle on Ice. Probably better hockey than the NHL right now.